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Deminisher

October Player Activity Analysis

12 posts in this topic

October Player Activity Analysis

 

Some of you may have noticed that, during the month of October, there was an absence of Activity Project reports. This was apparently the result of various internal changes in the Game Moderation team, which ultimately resulted in the project being put on hold for the duration of that month. The data from prior checks had proven to be extremely helpful in gauging and predicting the present activity climate of the server; thereby allowing settlements to accurately plan and adjust various facets of their community in order to better improve their own activity. As a result, a team of stewards and I had decided to collect the activity data ourselves.

 

The main objective of this thread is to provide a study of these results, identifying and explaining correlations and anomalies in the data, as well as extrapolating additional information from them. A link to the interactive versions of each graph will also be provided, so that others may be able to use the data for their own purposes.

 

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Random sampling was used to record data across each day, as it is far easier to undertake due to the daily time constraints of each of the individuals involved in this project. Ultimately any bias or anomalies in the data are reduced by averaging the values later on. With help from @perses @TJBMinecraft @CorniWhore , we have recorded over 300 checks across a period of 6 weeks in order to better refine the data that we collect.

 

At first glance, patterns in the server population may not be clear, but become extremely evident when presented on a graph.

 

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https://goo.gl/1K1abH

 

Each increment on the horizontal axis represents one week, with each spike representing a day. It can now be seen that there is generally a downward trend across the week, with the lowest activity around Wednesday and Thursday. There is often a small increase in server activity during Friday, as more players become available leading up to the weekends.

 

Average Daily Activity

 

In order to be better gauge the activity of the server, it is better to be able to spot patterns for each day, allowing for finer analysis. From the mass of data collected, the average number of players online can be calculated for each interval hour. The result of the averaging produces a graph which presents the average activity across the server.

 

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https://goo.gl/3cB7j5

 

 * Note that between 3:00 to 4:00 GMT there is sadly a lack of figures as no data has ever been recorded during those intervals (as the team is composed of only GMTers and ESTers).

 

From this data it can be seen that the server reaches an average peak of around 130 players daily between 22:00 GMT and until at least 2:00 GMT (17:00 EST and 21:00 EST), which is consistent when considering that the majority of players are restricted by school hours. As such, server activity dips to a low at around 10:00 to 11:00 GMT, periods where the European and American playerbase are generally absent. 

 

In additionally, there are some noticeable increases in server population, between 13:00 and 15:00 GMT, and 19:00 and 21:00 GMT, of around 33 people for each occurrence. We have theorised that these periods of influx are a result of players from specific timezones becoming more active as school finishes. This is considering that school in europe tends to finish around the first occurrence (13:00 and 15:00 GMT) and schools on the American east coast tend to finish around the second occurrence (14:00 and 16:00 EST).

 

Demographics of the Server

 

Utilising the data we have for the average daily activity and by considering the prior hypothesis, we can separate the data into three periods, each representing a specific range of timezones (Asia and Oceania, Europe and Africa, and the Americas). From this, we are able to algorithmically project an estimate in terms of the numbers of players for each category.

 

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https://goo.gl/FBHPfi

 

The yellow trendline represents the number of players from Asia and Oceania, the green trendline represents the number of players from Europe and Africa, and the red trendline represents the number of players from the Americas.

 

Marked on the graph are the time periods where the player bases are least likely to overlap; therefore the figures that are within those periods are most likely to be the closest value in terms of the number of players from those locations.

 

Assuming that those from Asia and Oceania solely dominate the server between 8:00 and 9:00 GMT (16:00 AWST and 17:00 AWST), they would account for an average of 26.0 players daily.

Assuming that those from Europe and Africa dominate the activity between 15:00 GMT and 17:00 GMT, they would account for an average of 57.1 players daily.

Assuming that those from the Americas dominate the activity between 23:00 and 2:00 GMT (18:00 EST and 21:00 EST), they would account for an average of 130.0 players daily.

 

The estimate of the total average number of active players on this server, during any day in the month of October, would therefore be 213.1. With Asia and Oceania accounting for 12.2%, Europe and Africa accounting for 26.8%, and the Americas accounting for 61% of the server population.

 

Conclusion

 

In short, the data shows that the server is most active during the weekends and earlier in the week, and that the overall peak is around 0:00 GMT (19:00 EST) a period dominated by roughly 130 players based in the Americas. There are also independent peaks for each group of timezones at around 18:00 GMT for Europe and Africa (with around 57 players), and at around 10:00 GMT (18:00 AWST) for Asia and Oceania (with around 26 players).

 

The team suggests that other communities, whether it be settlements or nations, independently collect activity data. Doing so will allow them to compare their own activity with the server’s as a whole, as well as providing members with a better idea on how to go about improving activity.

 

Spoiler

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In the data for our own settlement, we noticed a distribution of activity with two peaks (not shown). The earlier representing the peak from the GMT group of players, and the latter representing the peak from the EST group of players. This showed that activity was far too concentrated at those times, and therefore had to be dispersed across a wider period. Over a few weeks we were able to diminish the gap between the peaks, so that a constant stream of activity was present between them.

 

We hope that by using this information, individuals and groups may also be able to better organise events amongst their own communities or for the server as a whole. This should also serve as an example of how collaborative efforts among players in recording and analysing statistical information can be used to guide and support the development of settlements, nations, or the server in its entirety.

 

In regards to the stewardship team and I, we hope to continue to this project even after the map change, and any additions or changes will be actively reflected on the linked graphs.

 

If you have any questions or feedback regarding this post or any of the data collected or the methodology, feel free to ask.
 

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so what your sayin is, its time to shut down lotc and give it to mog to make into a GoT server?

 

i support that

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Impressed by how well this is presented. I'm going to put this in the slideshow.

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Really nicely made, I'd love to sit down and chat with you some more on your methodology some time. 

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Awesome, pure awesome. Good work bud.

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i like data

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I was going to say something harsh about how it's really pointless to spend time collecting data on player counts and activity when you could be online roleplaying and creating activity

 

but this is just insane

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Very interesting, considering this is probably the biggest Roleplay Server on which players around the globe play.
Incredible results, and I look forward how the data will contribute to strengthen activity among different player-groups.

Thanks for the insight, and the effort to obtaining the data.
 


Edited by KefKong

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Deminisher for like anything data related, now.

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On 11/11/2017 at 5:11 PM, Vaynth said:

Impressed by how well this is presented. I'm going to put this in the slideshow.

 

hes great at everything including art and maps

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Thank you for putting the time in to collect this data! Hopefully, the #of players will increase when school dies down!

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